Improved NFL Passing Stats Signal Positive Outlook for Upcoming Games
The recent analysis of NFL games shows a promising trend in passing yard statistics, with teams managing an average 10yard increase in passing per game compared to the disappointing Week 3 performances. More significantly, the Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback has also seen a substantial rebound. Although the first four weeks of the season have yielded an average of 202 passing yards per game, there is hope as the numbers gradually align with last year’s season average of 217 yards.
Standout Performance: Matthew Stafford Against Indianapolis Colts
Matthew Stafford emerged as the leading passer last week, recording most yards against the Indianapolis Colts. The RamsColts game, characterized by a tight scoreline, saw no team lead by more than a single score and witnessed lead changes in the final moments— a pattern evident across all four weeks involving the top weekly passing leader.
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 4140 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 4037 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 2320 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 2720 |
Betting Insights: Predicting Top Performance from Josh Allen in Week 5
Josh Allen stands as a strong contender for the highest passing yards in Week 5, with odds set at +1700. Despite a passive playing style in recent weeks, the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback is expected to deliver a standout performance against the Patriots’ currently lackluster pass defense, ranked 27th in EPA per dropback. Should game conditions demand, Allen might increase his pass attempts, exploiting weaknesses in the opposition’s defensive lineup.
Week 5 Betting Picks and Strategies
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Longshot Bet: Justin Fields’ Potential Breakthrough
For those seeking a highreward gamble, consider betting on Justin Fields to surpass 185.5 passing yards. Given the struggles of the Jets’ running game, coupled with the Cowboys’ struggles with pass defense, Fields has a window of opportunity to deliver his most prolific game in passing yards this season. His previous performances against the Steelers and Dolphins, with impressive yards per attempt, further bolster this highrisk, highreward strategy.
- 185.5 Passing Yards: 112
- 210+ Passing Yards: +154
- 240+ Passing Yards: +310
- 280+ Passing Yards: +810
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